NYC Mayor’s Race: A September surprise? Key voting date could be the day one of Mamdani’s moderate challengers drops out – or not

As the 2025 NYC Mayor’s race heats up, the paths to victory for most candidates appear increasingly narrow. Recent polls show Democratic nominee and socialist Zohran Mamdani maintaining a strong advantage against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Mayor Eric Adams, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa and independent attorney Jim Walden.

However, opponents of Mamdani’s have faced calls to coalesce behind one candidate in the interest of beating the Democratic nominee, who is a 33-year-old democratic socialist and who has ruffled feathers in the Democratic establishment. The unusual makeup of the race and agreement among opponents that Mamdani would be a bad fit for mayor has led some to wonder: Can Cuomo, Adams, and Sliwa coalesce behind one person in the interest of defeating Mamdani?

Even though Cuomo has said he would be willing to drop out and back another candidate if he is not the most popular Mamdani opponent leading up to the election — and has asked Adams to do the same — most signs point to “no,” according to Democratic strategists and recent polls.

The first New Yorkers to participate in November’s election, which will take place on Nov. 4, will cast their ballots on Sept. 17, the first day of mail-in voting, any candidates looking to defeat Mamdani have just under two months to map out a coalition strategy.

Sept. 17 could, in theory, be a critical moment in the campaign. If one of Mamdani’s moderate candidates bows out at that time and throws their support to another, it could significantly boost that other candidate’s chances of toppling Mamdani on Election Day.

Then again, the stubbornness of Adams, Cuomo and Sliwa might win out — and neither candidate may budge, according to at least one political strategist.

“Good luck trying to get Eric Adams and Curtis Sliwa to drop out,” said Democratic strategist Trip Yang. “Matter of fact, you’d be hard pressed to find a collection of three New Yorkers more stubborn than Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams, and Curtis Sliwa.”

Overcoming tremendous odds

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo campaigning in Inwood, Manhattan on July 30, 2025.Photo by Manuela Morerya

Both Adams and Sliwa have said that they have no indication of dropping out and supporting another candidate. Walden first pitched the coalition idea to the race’s “free market” candidates earlier this month, looking to take a page from the Mamdani playbook of political bridge-building.

On whether any Mamdani opponent has a chance at the ballot box in November without support from one another, Yang said there is “no shot.”

“There’s a better chance of the New York Jets winning the Super Bowl,” Yang said.

Recent polls show Mamdani, who cruised to victory against Cuomo in the June Democratic primary race, in a healthy lead ahead of November’s general election. A poll published Tuesday by Public Progress Solutions and Zenith Research shows Mamdani polling higher than Cuomo, Adams, and Sliwa combined. Cuomo is in second place by a margin of 28 points, followed by Adams and Sliwa.

Moreover, Yang pointed out, the presumptive victor in any New York City mayoral election in recent years has been the Democratic nominee. Registered Democrats in New York City outnumber Republicans by about eight to one. The boost given to Mamdani by earning the nomination, Yang said, will be hard for independent candidates like Cuomo or Adams to overcome.

Mayor Eric Adams.Photo by Dean Moses

As Mamdani’s opponents work to gain more traction in the race, those in the Mamdani camp do not appear worried about attempts to coalesce or shift campaign strategies.

“The voters have spoken,” said Working Families Party Co-Director Jasmine Gripper. “I think Zohran has a mandate to lead the city, and there’s clearly broad support for him.”

The Working Families Party endorsed Mamdani and spearheaded the “Rank the Slate” campaign, which aimed to use ranked choice voting to build a progressive coalition and increase the odds of a progressive candidate defeating Cuomo in the primary — a strategy that ultimately helped propel the democratic socialist to victory.

Gripper said that those working with Mamdani are not concerned about the possibility of an opposing candidate coalition.

“I’m not sure what coalition there is to be had of people who are really distinct and different,” Gripper said.

The Cuomo pivot

As the race stands, Cuomo is the only competitive candidate who has expressed a willingness to drop out if the polling points him in that direction. With double-digit poll deficits, Cuomo, Adams, and Sliwa would each need a dramatic turn in events to pull out a win in November.

Since Mamdani’s primary victory, Cuomo has pivoted his campaign strategy to focus more on social media, ground game, and media interviews. Cuomo said he “played it safe” in the primary and acknowledged that the campaign failed to adequately reach enough voters.

“In the next several months, I will run a very different kind of campaign,” Cuomo wrote in an email to supporters after re-launching his campaign. “I am putting together a new team, communications plan, strategy, and field operation. And most important, I will be out there, every day in every corner of this city, meeting you where you are to talk about the struggles you face, and the solutions to address them.”

But Yang believes Cuomo’s shift in strategy and communications may only go so far in the general election.

“He’s still the same Andrew Cuomo,” Yang said. “At a minimum baseline, you would need all these other candidates to drop out, have a one-on-one race with Cuomo and Mamdani, you would need Andrew Cuomo to actually be a charismatic, energetic candidate … and quite frankly, you would need Mamdani to trip up. Mamdani has proven himself to be a very, very skillful campaigner.”